OECD Economic Surveys: Japan 2017

Economic growth and demographic challenges

Economic growth has picked up since Abenomics was launched in 2013, and so has job creation. However, Japan faces serious demographic headwinds, as its population is projected to decline by a quarter over 2015-50, with the share over age 65 rising from 26% to almost 40%. Firms already face labour shortages. Population ageing also puts upward pressure on government spending. Gross government debt, which has risen to 219% of GDP, the highest ever recorded in the OECD area, continues to rise.

Labour productivity is about a quarter below the top half of OECD countries despite Japan's high levels of human capital, R&D and business investment. Slowing productivity growth has been accompanied by increased income inequality and relative poverty. Gender gaps in employment and wages are relatively large.

Assessment and recommendations

This Economic Survey of Japan assesses the country's recent macroeconomic performance and prospects, and offers recommendations to boost productivity and foster more inclusive growth. In particular, the expanding gap between leading and lagging firms should be narrowed by promoting business sector dynamism and entrepreneurship.

Breaking down labour market dualism is a priority to bring about inclusive growth and raise productivity. Faster productivity and output growth, accompanied by measures to limit public spending growth and gradually increase government revenue, would help ensure fiscal sustainability.

SPECIAL FEATURES

PRODUCTIVITY FOR INCLUSIVE GROWTH; FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY