Introduction

The next three years will determine whether South Africa succeeds or fails in the long term.

Political Leadership

• Jacob Zuma’s term as president is due to end in 2019, though he could go earlier. Who will succeed him and what will be the impact on policy?

Party Dominance and Governance

• The ANC’s dominance has been significantly dented after opposition parties gained ground in the 2016 local government elections, but will the minority and coalition governments in key cities hold or fall apart?

Economic Challenges

• The economy is in trouble, and the National Treasury has been buffeted by a struggle for power at the centre of government. Will Pravin Gordhan and his band of reformers survive and succeed?

Institutional Stability

• The public protector’s term ends in October 2016. Will her successor hold the line?

• The judiciary is under pressure, and several positions have opened up on the Constitutional Court bench. Will the rule of law be maintained?

Future Outlook

Looking at these and other issues, Richard Calland presents scenarios for the country’s future, showing how the next few years are the most critical since the early 1990s, and how South Africa can set itself on a path to success or failure. It really is make or break time.